In a new study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine (Nilson et al., 2025), researchers reported “a linear dose-response association between the ultra-processed food consumption and all-cause mortality” when they examined official surveys previously undertaken in the United Kingdom (UK) and US, as well as Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Chile and Mexico. (Nilson et al., 2025;Campbell, 2025)
The researchers conducted a meta-analysis to assess the dose-dependent relationship between UPF [ultra-processed food] consumption and all-cause mortality. “All-cause premature death rates among adults were estimated in eight countries with relatively low (Colombia and Brazil), intermediate (Chile and Mexico), and high (Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the U.S) UPF consumption.” (Nilson et al., 2025;Bose, 2025)
Findings
A total of 239,982 participants and 14,779 deaths were considered for the dose-response meta-analysis that examined the association between the dietary share of ultra-processed foods and all-cause mortality. The pooled relative risk (RR) for a 10% increase in UPF on total energy intake was estimated to be 1.027.
A wide range of Population attributable fractions (PAFs) was observed in the selected countries based on their average ultra- processed food consumption. For example, Colombia, which reported lower ultra-processed food consumption, was associated with 3.9% PAFs, whereas the U.K. and U.S. reported higher PAFs at 14%.
The absolute number of premature deaths every year attributed to ultra-processed food consumption was between approximately 2,000 people in Chile and 124,000 individuals in the U.S. (Nilson et al., 2025; Bose, 2025)
Furthermore, these researchers noted that, “[w]hile 4%, 5% and 6% of premature deaths in Colombia, Brazil and Chile respectively are “attributable to UPF consumption,” the equivalent percentage is 10.9% in Canada, 13.7% in the US and 13.8% in England – the highest proportion among the eight countries.
“Premature deaths attributable to consumptions of ultra-processed foods increase significantly according to their share in individuals’ total energy intake. A high amount of UPF [ultra-processed food] intake can significantly affect health,” the researchers concluded. (Nilson et al., 2025; Campbell, 2025)
Death rates are highest in the countries where the population gets the largest amounts of total energy from eating UPF. In England that is 53.4%, according to the National Diet and Nutrition Survey undertaken in 2018-19. But it is even higher in the US – 54.5%.
The authors “first estimated a linear association between the dietary share of UPFs and all-cause mortality, so that each 10% increase in the participation of UPFs in the diet increases the risk of death from all causes by 3%,” said Eduardo Augusto Fernandes Nilson, the lead investigator of the study, from the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Brazil. While the burden of ill-health from UPF is highest in high-income countries, he noted that consumption of UPFs is growing in low- and middle-income nations. (Nilson et al., 2025; Campbell, 2025)
Stephen Burgess, a statistician in the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the UK’s University of Cambridge, said that while the study cannot prove the consumption of ultra-processed foods is harmful, “it does provide evidence linking consumption with poorer health outcomes.” (LaMotte, 2025)
“It is possible that the true causal risk factor is not ultra-processed foods, but a related risk factor such as better physical fitness — and ultra-processed foods is simply an innocent bystander,” said Burgess, who was not involved in the study, in a statement. “But, when we see these associations replicated across many countries and cultures, it raises suspicion that ultra-processed foods may be more than a bystander.” (LaMotte, 2025)
Conclusions
In conclusion, the findings of this recent research add to the growing body of evidence that links ultra- processed foods to a higher risk of both specific illnesses, and an increased risk overall of dying before age 75 (Campbell, 2025; Nilson et al., 2025) In the current study, the researchers reported a linear dose-response association between UPF consumption and all-cause mortality. Each 10% increase in UPF consumption corresponded to a 2.7% increased risk of all-cause mortality (Nilson et al., 2025;Bose, 2025).
Based on these results, the authors of this new study urge governments worldwide to introduce bold measures to reduce consumption of ultra-processed foods, including enhanced regulations of food marketing, and improved regulations on the sale of ultra-processed foods in schools and workplaces. The authors also recommend using fiscal policy, including taxes on ultra-processed food products, to reduce sales. (Nilson et al., 2025)
Bose P. How much ultraprocessed food is too much? This study has the answer. News Medical Life Sciences. May 1, 2025. Available at: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20250501/How-much-ultra-processed-food-is-too-much-This-study-has-the-answer.aspx
Campbell D. Ultra-processed food increases risk of early death, international study finds. The Guardian, April 28, 2025. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/apr/28/ultra-processed-food-increases-risk-of-early-death-international-study-finds
Nilson EAF, Delpino FM, Batis C, Machado PP, Moubarac JC, Cediel G, Corvalan C, Ferrari G, Rauber F, Martinez-Steele E, Louzada MLDC, Levy RB, Monteiro CA, Rezende LFM. Premature Mortality Attributable to Ultraprocessed Food Consumption in 8 Countries. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2025:S0749-3797(25)00072-8.