“The region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented pressures due to rising temperatures, severe droughts, deforestation, and fires, even in remote parts or those located in the heart of the system,” the researchers wrote in the study published in the scientific journal Nature.
The researchers estimated that ten to 47 percent of the current vegetation in the Amazon, which is described as the “lungs of the Earth,” will be exposed to these combined stressors by 2050.
“Once we turn this corner, we probably won't be able to do anything anymore,” explained Bernardo Flores, an ecologist at the University of Santa Catarina in Brazil. “The forest will die on its own.”
Flores said it was time to announce the "maximum warning" for the Amazon, the largest tropical rainforest in the world.
Experts point out that as rising temperatures dissipate moisture in the region, the rainforest is increasingly turning into savannas or other lower-ranking ecosystems that are more likely to be ignited by forest fires.
This transformation represents a big change for the Amazon, which is currently burning due to farmers clearing the land by burning the remains of ancient crops.
As the land becomes drier, more wildfires may break out, such as in the drier conifer forests of the western United States and Canada.
The researchers examined forested areas and took into account climatic and human factors, including past and expected temperatures and rainfall rates, and the status of land management such as whether the land was protected or inhabited by indigenous groups.
Beyond the potential conversion of the rainforest to savannah, the researchers point to two other possible outcomes: increased deforestation or increased unshaded ecosystems inhabited by fire-adapted organisms.
“The paths are different, but they are all linked to biodiversity loss,” said Marina Hirota of the Brazilian University of Santa Catarina and co-author of the study.
She added that these changes “will represent a disaster for indigenous communities or others who depend on forests for their resources. If you live on forests and their resources, you will not find anything.”