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SP has an explosion of “a Boeing 747 a day” and the deaths from Covid-19 could remain high until 2021, says the director of Butantan

Publicado em 15 julho 2020

Daily deaths from coronavirus in the state of São Paulo could remain at a “high level” until 2021, according to a projection presented on Tuesday (14) by the director of the Butantan Institute, Dimas Covas.

“We will keep this epidemic going for a long time. The mortality rate has stabilized, but is at a high level. We have about 300 deaths a day in the state of São Paulo. This is equivalent to a Boeing 747. We have one Boeing 747 explosion per day and it may continue until next year, ”he said during a virtual debate with experts from the Research Support Foundation (Fapesp) and Butantan.

Dimas Covas is part of the emergency center set up by the São Paulo government and has coordinated the group in a relay of its members. However, it has different positions than those defended by the management of João Doria (PSDB).

This week, the government celebrated the fact that weekly deaths in the state fell and reached a plateau for the third consecutive week, and announced the greatest relaxation of quarantine in 9 regions of the state. Although the weekly numbers were lower, the moving average of deaths shows plateau stability at the highest point and no decline.

  • With the second highest number of deaths in a day, SP exceeds 18,000 deaths. State has hospitalized more than 15 thousand for the first time
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According to the forecasts provided by Dimas Covas, the number of deaths and cases in the state is likely to continue to increase as the transmission rate of the disease has not yet decreased enough to reduce the contagion.

“Although many have the wrong feeling that we are in a moment of flexion, on a plateau, in reality these cases are likely to continue to increase. The number of deaths should also continue to increase, ”he said.

Dimas Covas had already criticized the plan to reopen the trade in São Paulo on June 11.

“If you make a plan, you have to predict when you will leave DO, right … Out of this situation. But no specialist, no infectious disease, no epidemiologist tells you that you can go with a rising curve mean, it doesn’t make much sense, you understand? And we don’t have a downward curve in the state of São Paulo, “he said at the time.

According to Dimas, the solution would be to increase social isolation to 70%, which was recommended by experts at the beginning of the pandemic, but is no longer the main criterion for reopening.

“Given what we’ve saved from social isolation, below 50%, around 45% across the state, we see this type of plateau. The alternative would be to increase the isolation measures to 70%, which would certainly make us behave differently from the epidemic. ”

The virtual debate with experts from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa (Fapesp) and Butantan also counted on the participation of mathematician Eduardo Massad, professor at the Fundação Getúlio Vargas School of Applied Mathematics (FGV). At the event, he explained that São Paulo and Brazil do not have a good time to reopen schools.

“Classes absolutely cannot come back in September. I did the math today. We have 500,000 children with the virus in Brazil today. If you open it again on August 1st, you will even wear a mask and even move two meters away The first day of school we will have 1,700 new infections with 38 deaths, which will double after 10 days and quadruple after 15 days. So opening schools is genocide, “he said.

Using mathematical formulas, Eduardo Massad explained that if the schools in Brazil were to reopen steeply, the country could jump from 300 deaths in children under the age of 5 to 17,000 by the end of the year.

“How many children died for Covid in Brazil today? Does anyone have an idea? 300 and a few children under the age of 5 died in Brazil. If we reopen the schools, we will reach 17,000. There are 17,000 children who will die and not have to The rest of the problems you can solve and solve. Losing 17,000 children is not a possible solution. We are talking about life. If you lose a year, nobody will die for it. If we open and one without very precise planning very great control of what will happen is that 17,000 children will die naturally in the course of the epidemic against 300 and a few when the schools are closed, “he said.

The state of São Paulo recorded 417 deaths from Covid-19 on Tuesday (14), the second highest number since the pandemic began. The record was made on June 23 with 432 deaths within 24 hours. The number of new cases was also the second highest on Tuesday with 12,000 new reports.

The total number of patients admitted with confirmation or suspicion of the disease broke a record this Tuesday: There are more than 15,000 patients with Covid-19 in hospital in the public and private health care systems.

The state has confirmed 12,000 new cases in the past 24 hours. There were 53,899 new cases in the past week, a moving average of 7,700 new cases per day.

1,849 deaths have been recorded in the last 7 days. As a result, the moving average of 264 deaths a day last week due to the disease. It is the 48th day in a row with an average of over 200 deaths per day due to the disease.

It is the third time since the epidemic began that SP has exceeded 10,000 confirmed cases in a single day. On July 2, 12,244 cases were confirmed. On June 19, the total number of records in a day was 19,030 due to a notification confiscation problem.

Admission and job in the intensive care unit

According to the State Department of Health, the state admitted 6,173 patients to the intensive care unit and 9,116 to the ward with symptoms of Covid-19 on Monday. The total number of hospital patients is 15,289, including suspected and confirmed cases of the disease, which are registered in the public or private healthcare system.

The inpatient coronavirus patient record in SP was registered on July 5 when 14,904 people were in this condition.

Utilization of beds in the intensive care unit also rose slightly to 66.2% in the state and 64.9% in the greater São Paulo area. In the second case, rates were 66.1% in the state and 64.7% in the greater São Paulo area.

In addition to the discharge of patients admitted to the hospital with Covid-19, the SP government began to disclose the number of recovered patients with mild illnesses in early July.

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