The Brazilian grain crop will be larger than that provided for last month, according to new data released on Thursday (10) by Conab (National Supply Company) and IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
With this, the final stocks of basic products improve in relation to previous forecasts. In Conab calculations, the total grain crop in Brazil will be 330 million tons, 11% more than last year's. IBGE estimates production of 328 million, 12% more.
The figures for March indicate increase in rice, wheat and corn production, but stability in soy, when compared the data of this disclosure with those of the previous month. Soy shows better productivity, with an increase in Mato Grosso and Goiás, but had a strong drop in Rio Grande do Sul. IBGE reduced the state production expectations to 15 million tons, 21% less than it predicted last month.
In Conab calculations, at the end of the 2024/25 crop, the rice stock is 1.6 million tons; Corn, 7.4 million, and beans, 341 thousand. These stocks are leftover from one crop to another and add up to the whole product in private and public warehouses.
The bad news for the consumer is that the wheat stock retreats to 1.12 million. The relief will also not come in coffee prices, as Brazilian Arabian type production drops 11%to 35.8 million bags.
Brazil is the world's largest supplier of the drink, and a smaller offer will maintain foreign and internal foreign market prices. Orange production, after falling in the previous crop, which raised prices to record levels, grows 4.5%, reaching 12.8 million tons. For IBGE, the corn crop rises to 127.3 million, with 11%increase, and soybeans go to 164.3 million, with an increase of 13.3%, compared to 2023/24. Conab estimates the oilseed crop in 167.9 million.
The USDA (US Department of Agriculture) also released data on soybean and corn supply and demand on Thursday. The numbers did not have major changes compared to those of March, which should occur in May, according to Agrural.
The United States will export 49.7 million tons of soy in the 2024/25 crop, which runs until August 31. With this, the trade war between China and the United States should not interfere much in this crop, but in 2025/26, if the rates announced between the two countries persist.
The Brazilian soybean crop, in the USDA evaluation, reaches 169 million tons, and exports, considering the period from October 2024 to September 2025, are 105.5 million. World production will be 421 million tons, above 411 million consumption.
United States corn exports are estimated at 64.8 million tons. For Brazil, the US agency foresees 44 million.
Market sheet
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US Package
Already predicting losses to soybean producers, the US government prepares a package for farmers assistance due to trade war with China.
US Package 2
In the First Trade War, which occurred during Donald Trump's first term, soybean producers' losses bordered $ 20 billion.
US Package 3
In addition to economic losses at that time, soybean producers saw Brazil advance in China's market and gain space in exports. Americans no longer recovered the market share they had.
Vineyard
Researchers at UFSCar, with the support of FAPESP, seek means of reusing the nutrients of vinasse, a residue generated in huge quantity during ethanol production and often discarded in the environment.
Vineyard 2
The group used the sugarcane bagasse burning ashes to remove from nutrients that can be used as agricultural fertilizers, such as potassium and nitrogen. The process reduces the acidity of vinasse, minimizing the negative impact on the soil, according to the researchers.
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(tagstotranslate) Agriculture