Study published in March in the magazine Communications Earth & Environment points out that inflationary pressure on food in the world could reach 3.2% per year until 2035 due to the global increase in temperatures and heat waves. General inflation could be 1.18% annually, taking other products into account.
Price increases are just some of the economic impacts expected due to climate change, concluded experts present at the edition most recent of the ILP-FAPESP Science and Innovation Cycle, held on April 1st.
“The relationship between the economy and climate is very complex, perhaps one of the most complex problems we have experienced to date. Natural processes are related to different areas of the economy: agribusiness, industry, services, government, institutions and public policies that we design. And it’s a two-way street: they affect and are affected by climate change” said Ariaster Chimeli, professor at the Faculty of Economics and Administration at the University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), during the event.
For Jean Ometto, researcher at Inpe (National Institute for Space Research) and member of the coordination of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change, the economic impacts reflect the enormous challenges that tackling climate change imposes.
“These challenges include mitigating climate change in particular, but also adapting to events that arise from the climate dynamics that have been changing the planet. This, obviously, requires measures, whether mitigation or adaptation, that cut across economic, financing, and legal issues” said at the opening of the seminar.
Annelise Vendramini, professor at the São Paulo School of Business Administration at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, said that the climate variable brings 2 groups of risk to the economy. One of them is physical risks, such as heavy rains, droughts and how they affect companies, sectors and regions in particular.
“An example is the Panama Canal, through which 5% of the global economy and 40% of United States exports pass. Droughts caused by climate change are making part of its operation impossible.” he stated.
According to the researcher, another group of economic risks associated with climate change is the transition to a low-carbon economy. To reduce this, public policies have a main role in two major directions to attract capital: one of them is to establish clear rules that signal in the direction of low carbon, bringing security to investors and banks.
“Another important element is to remove some existing obstacles that are preventing the arrival of resources for this agenda in Brazil, such as, for example, legal, monetary and political instability, very important elements not only for obtaining future resources, for projects that We still don’t have it and we want to implement it, but mainly for those we have today, who would already be able to receive these amounts” he stated.
Legislation
For Ana Maria Nusdeo, professor at the Faculty of Law at the University of São Paulo, there are some approaches that legislation could address. One of them is the establishment of a comprehensive policy on the topic, since there are great needs for transition to low-carbon processes, mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
“It was also clear that the issue has several layers and this capillarity will require specific standards for specific sectors and, eventually, specific locations.” he said.
The researcher remembers that Brazil has a National Policy on Climate Change, and the State of São Paulo, a state politics both from 2009 (the state one was regulated in January 2024 by decree).
Since then, he says, a lot has changed, both changes in the climate have increased and the commitments made by countries have changed, such as the 2015 Paris Agreement.
“These laws are outdated and there are commissions around updating them. What is important about them is that a comprehensive law would have the function of establishing principles, guidelines, objectives, but also instruments, including financial ones.”
As examples, the researcher cited Chile and Portugal, which created laws on climate matters that provide for financial instruments, establishing rules, determining activities considered positive in climate change and which, therefore, have priority in public financing.
With information from Fapesp Agency.