The global climate system may face a catastrophic collapse due to the near-impeachment of rainforest extinction. A new Nature study conducted by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research (PIK) has revealed that up to 47 percent of the Amazonian forest is under threat, and certain climatic and land-use thresholds must be met to preserve the Amazon's resilience.
The Southeastern Amazon has transitioned from a carbon sink to a source, resulting in a large amount of rainfall, making it vulnerable to long-term damage from human pressure.
The Amazon's natural resilience is being threatened by increased disturbances, which is pushing it towards a critical threshold.
Based on a large body of scientific findings, the researchers identify five key factors associated with this critical point in the Amazon's evolution: global warming, annual rainfall amounts, the intensity of rainfall seasonality, dry season length, and accumulated deforestation. Safe boundaries for each of these five drivers are proposed to preserve the ecosystem's resilience.
According to the author of the study, Da Nian, the scientist at PIK, the study found that the Amazon rainforest is not viable for areas with an annual rainfall of less than 1000 mm. However, there are situations where rainfall can switch abruptly from rainforest to Savanna-like vegetation, and this can occur due to either drought or forest fires that have become more common in recent years.
The impact of forest loss is not restricted to the Amazon region. The moisture transported through the "flying rivers" in South America is a critical component of the South American Monsoon and is crucial for rainfall in most parts of the continent. Furthermore, the Amazon stores carbon equivalent to 15-20 years of current human CO2 emissions, which intensifies the effects of global warming.
Furthermore, the research examines cases of disturbed forests across the Amazon, with the aim of interpreting what might occur to the ecosystem. In certain cases, the forest may eventually regain its condition, but will still be dominated by opportunistic plants like lianas or bamboos. In other cases, the forest may not regain its original form, and will remain in an open-canopy, flammable state. This is particularly alarming because open, flammable ecosystems are growing throughout the core of the Amazon forest, including if they can also spread blaze
In order to keep the Amazon forest within safe limits, it Woman's World and World Heritage's most important goal is to combine local and global efforts. This requires halting deforestation and forest degradation and expanding restoration efforts.
The paper titled "Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system" was presented in the book Nature on 14 February 2024, and is available for research using the following links: DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0. The paper contains 136 individuals, with some claiming to have been sex-themed.