SÃO PAULO – On the eve of a year first case of covid-19, Brazil hit the mark on Thursday 18 10 million infected by the virus. The number now stands at 10,028,644 cases. The rate of spread of the disease followed the growth line announced by the researchers. It took eight months to achieve 5 million cases and almost half that time for the number to double. Even with the hope for the vaccine, experts heard from the Estadão assess that the country will face challenges before the cases slow down. Brazil is the third country in the world to reach the mark after the USA and India.
THE first million infected In Brazil, it was achieved last June when scientists from different parts of the world were working on studies to find an immunization agent that would stop the virus from spreading. Information about the meaning of Use of masks, social distancing and hygiene measures like Wash your hands or use alcohol gel was already widespread, but the country entered an escalation of cases resulting in a high number of deaths.
“It would all be different. But we have pursued a number of disobedient to restrictive measures from the beginning, and this ultimately leads us to what we live in today. The more we see people saying they have the right to do so . ” When we move around and don’t wear a mask, new biology-related mutations form, and with these variants we become caught up in something that hasn’t been programmed. Last year, when he reached up to a vaccine quarantine started, it was due to the ability to treat cases that came up, smooth the curve, and maintain the virus’ genetic stability so there weren’t too sudden changes. People got tired of the pandemic, but we didn’t get tired, “says Benilton de Sá Carvalho, professor in the statistics department and coordinator of the epidemiological front of the task force Campinas State University ((Unicamp) against a Covid-19.
Carvalho says attempting to gauge the spread of the disease in Brazil is not an impossible task, but a challenging one, given the number of variables that would need to be considered. “We’re talking about this period of exponential growth. What ultimately happens to this numerical behavior is that if there was one fall today, two tomorrow, then four. At that rate, it reaches a point that accelerates too much.” , he says.
“In our case it’s more complicated (estimate) Because of the difficulty of accessing information, be it monitoring such as the days of symptoms or information about tests and vaccinations, all variables are important to measure, “says Sá Carvalho.” The fight for emergency aid is another issue. The absence will circulate people more and bring new varieties. ”
There are already records of the distribution of the British variant in Brazil, and another variant has emerged in the Amazon, P1, which has already been detected in other states such as Rio, Ceará and Santa Catarina. São Paulo has already discovered cases of the two tribes.
Another point of concern is population immunization, which has been slow due to the low dose. Until this Wednesday 17 5.4 million people had been vaccinated, second balance Ministry of Health.
“Because of the slow vaccination rate, we shouldn’t see these effects as fast or as quickly as in Israel. We have about 3% of the people vaccinated in Brazil. I am not sure we will and will have an effect after July be.” complicated because we will go through the winter until the second semester and the number of not only covid respiratory diseases increases by default in May or June. ”
In Israel, Over 40% of the 9 million residents have already received the vaccine against Covid-19. Almost two months after the vaccination campaign started, the results are already showing, and the country has already seen a decrease in the number of critically ill patients (38%) with deaths in the population over 60 (40%) after hospitalization, elderly (58%) and general Hospital stays (44%) compared to January.
In the United States, which has also seen an explosion of cases, the number of new cases has been presented 39% decrease in the last two weeks, drawn by mass vaccination.
“Vaccination is slow because the demand for vaccines is extremely high and we don’t have enough doses. We received a 70 million doses offer from Pfizer that was missed. There was a brutal mistake in logistics and the investment in something which is scientific says it is ineffective, “says Carvalho, referring to the” early treatment “even given by President Jair Bolsonaro, made with drugs that studies have already shown not to fight the virus are effective.
Strategic isolation is also effective with new variants
When the pandemic began, social distancing was soon identified as a strategy to contain the spread of the virus. Brazil did not see the lockdown but did see the opening and closing movements of factories in European countries. The “stay at home” was accepted by some and criticized by others last year. However, social isolation is an important tool in preventing the virus, including new variants, from spreading. But it has to be thought strategically, according to Airton Deppman, researcher and professor at the Institute of Physics at University of Sao Paulo ((USP).
He did a study last year looking at the Virus spread model. Rather than using the SIR standard, which is more likely to be used to describe how a pandemic evolves over time and which takes into account vulnerable, infected, and distant people (due to death or vaccination), a model called a fractal was used to show the spread via Groups rated.
“This model started with an analysis of the epidemic data in March and April last year, collecting data in different regions of the world such as China, Europe, the United States and the state of São Paulo. We saw that this is the best way to go . ” The analysis was not done through the SIR, the oldest and most traditional. If you have an infected person in the SIR, this person will likely infect everyone, but we know that a person in São Paulo has a minimal chance of contaminating another person is difficult to explain in Manaus because of the epidemic in a large population to explain. Our model assumes that one individual infects a small group and these individuals infect other groups that have contact with other groups of people. ”
Coronavirus: see what is already known about the disease
From these results, he says, it is possible to develop more effective models to contain the virus. “The contamination process depends on the number of contacts and that is more important than reducing the effectiveness of the virus, even for the new variants. This model offers the possibility to evaluate smarter strategies of social isolation, because if it is a very isolated one Isolation acts Generally and protractedly imposed, people cannot follow, as we saw at Carnival and at the end of last year. We learned that the population in general cannot achieve strict isolation and that the contamination is largely regional. ”
When monitoring blisters, tests and isolations in places that are really needed in addition to vaccination, there is a tendency for infections to fall off.
“My impression is that the population adapts based on the information submitted by the government. Using a mathematical model, it is possible to design forms of mobility impairment that are more efficient at preventing the virus from spreading, without a very large one Number of harms of people watching where it takes stricter distances, how the bladder spreads, and what region needs more testing to see if the isolation is effective, “suggests Deppman.
“I thought my organism would react faster,” says professor, who was hospitalized
Early childhood educator Amanda Vello do Paraizo, 41, is expected to leave the hospital on Friday the 19th. She showed the first symptoms of Covid-19 15 days ago and has been hospitalized since the 12th. She had a fever, tiredness, exhaustion, nausea and vomiting. After the diagnosis, he stayed at home but needed help three days later. “I was feeling very tired and coughing a lot. I had new tests and my oxygen supply was low. I had a CT scan and x-ray that showed that 50% of the lungs were affected. I wasn’t intubated but I was scared.”
Her main concern was that she also had diabetes, which placed her at a higher risk of complications. During the pandemic, care was taken to avoid infections such as wearing a mask, hand hygiene, and avoiding overcrowding. “I’ve always been very cautious about diabetes. I went out very cautiously, but I had a doctor’s appointment with the endocrinologist and went to the hairdresser with my daughter. And the market that was always there.”
Amanda says the disease is not mild. “I felt very weak. I thought my body would react faster. I had a very cold fever, it was very uncomfortable.” In the family, only she was infected. “My husband took the test and it was negative twice. My parents, my aunt, with whom I have a lot of contact, had none. Neither did my 9-year-old daughter. It’s difficult to stay without seeing her I hope To find you soon. “