One of the pillars of the Brazilian economy and one of the sectors responsible for the highest greenhouse gas emissions, beef production in Brazil, as it is currently practiced, emits more than twice the limit needed to meet international environmental targets. This is one of the conclusions of a study published in the journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research.
The work includes an evaluation of projected emissions scenarios, along with an economic assessment. The researchers calculated that the sector’s emissions could range from 0.42 to 0.63 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) by 2030, while the limit for meeting the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target would be 0.26 GtCO2e. On the other hand, mitigation strategies along the production chain could prevent losses of up to USD 42.6 billion and ensure greater competitiveness.
The NDCs are the commitment that countries made in the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, and which will be reviewed this year leading up to COP30 (United Nations Climate Change Conference) in Belém, in the Brazilian Amazon.
The commitment includes emission reduction targets for countries, with guidelines for transforming the development model, covering all sectors of the economy. The global objective is to limit the increase in the planet’s average temperature to 1.5 °C compared to the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900). This limit, however, is being put at risk – 2024 was the hottest year in history, with an average global temperature increase of 1.55 °C, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The study was based on the NDC in force until 2024 – a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. In November, Brazil submitted its new contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), committing to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by between 850 million and 1.05 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2035 – a 59% to 67% reduction from 2005 levels.
“We know how important the beef sector is not only for the economy but also for the Brazilian menu. Our goal is not to say: produce or eat less meat, but to start a discussion about the current form of production, which is linked to deforestation, high emissions and without adopting sustainable techniques. That’s not the way to achieve our climate targets. Our findings show that it’s necessary to adopt practices in the production chain that reduce emissions. This also contributes to reducing the costs associated with climate change,” says the article’s first author, biologist Mariana Vieira da Costa, from the Laboratory of Economics, Health and Environmental Pollution (LESPA) at the Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP) in Brazil.
In their work, the authors used the so-called social cost of carbon (SCC), a way of quantifying the financial impact of emissions on society and a reference for climate policy and decision-making.
The SCC represents the economic cost of emitting one ton of CO2, including non-commercial impacts on the environment and human health, and incorporating consequences such as agricultural losses and damage from extreme weather events. These costs can be reduced or redirected to investments in more sustainable livestock production practices through public policies and accessible credit lines.
According to the study, the potential cost savings range from USD 18.8 billion to USD 42.6 billion by 2030, depending on whether the targets are met.
In 2023, Brazil set a record for beef exports, selling 2.29 million tons to 157 countries and generating USD 10.55 billion in sales. The scientists considered the importance of beef exports to Brazil by calculating how much would be available for domestic consumption in 2030 if production were reduced to stay within the 0.26 GtCO2e emission limit needed to meet the NDC. The result was between 2 and 10 kg of beef per capita (per year).
“I’ve always wanted to study the relationship between cattle farming and climate change. At first, we had trouble finding more refined data. That’s why we created our indicator,” adds Costa, who was supervised by Professor Simone Miraglia, head of LESPA-UNIFESP and co-author of the article with biologist Daniela Debone.
For Miraglia, the results are important because, without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the increase in the global average temperature will lead to additional economic impacts, such as a reduction in agricultural production, an increase in forest fires and an increase in health impacts, including mortality.
Scenario
In a period of almost four decades (1985 to 2022), the agricultural area in Brazil has grown by 50% to 282.5 million hectares – a third of the national territory. Of this total, 58% is pasture (currently at 164.3 million hectares), according to a study by MapBiomas, a collaborative network made up of NGOs, universities and technology startups that maps land cover and land use in Brazil.
About 64% of the expansion of agriculture was due to deforestation for pasture (64.5 million hectares). This growth occurred mainly in the Amazon, causing the biome to overtake the Cerrado (Brazil’s savannah-like biome) in terms of pasture area.
The scientists point to the need for synergy between research and rural producers to promote more efficient, low-emission production practices and to seek environmentally sustainable techniques and technologies. They also highlight the role that the federal government can play in brokering and integrating research and technology adoption by producers.
They point out that although the ABC+ Plan currently facilitates investments in intensive practices by livestock farmers, their adoption is still low. The Plan for Adaptation and Low Carbon Emissions in Agriculture (ABC+) is an agenda of the Brazilian government to be implemented between 2020 and 2030, which provides continuity to the sectoral policy to combat climate change in the agricultural sector. In addition to creating and strengthening mechanisms for the adoption of sustainable production systems and practices, it seeks to diversify financial and fiscal sources and instruments.
Costa points out that the diversification of incentives, such as tax exemptions and the introduction of carbon credits, is essential to stimulate and promote significant changes on a large scale in the sector.
The work was supported by FAPESP through a scholarship for Costa and another project with an approach to analyzing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and health indicators.
The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration.
Climate change is causing more frequent and intense droughts, affecting the quantity and quality of grass available for dairy cows. In many cases, these droughts can prompt farmers to implement a variety of adaptation strategies, including changes in the cows' rations. In semi-mountainous grassland areas such as the Massif Central in France, farmers generally rely on hay stocks saved for the winter. With climate change, however, these areas are increasingly becoming suitable for growing fodder crops, such as corn, which can be introduced into animal rations. These practices—which until now have been marginal in cheese production areas—raise a number of questions for the local cheese sector, among them the crucial issue of product quality.
Researchers from INRAE and VetAgro Sup have assessed the effects these adaptation practices have on milk and cheese quality by conducting a 4-month trial on an INRAE experimental farm in the Massif Central. Four groups of ten dairy cows were fed diets reflecting the different practices implemented by farmers in the region to cope with climate change and drought. Two groups received rations based on grazed grass: the first was fed 75% grazed grass while the second received 50% hay to simulate a reduction in grass availability due to drought. The other two groups were fed corn silage rations: one ate 75% corn silage and 25% grazed grass, while the last group received no grazed grass and was fed 100% corn silage.
The milk from each group was used to make Cantal-type cheeses. Different samples of milk and cheese were analysed to assess their nutritional and sensory qualities. The results showed that the more grass the cows ate, the richer the milk and cheese were in omega-3 fatty acids, which are beneficial to human health.
A group of ten trained panellists assessed the taste, aroma, smell and texture [1] of the Cantal-type cheeses. Cows fed on grazed grass produced smoother, yellower, more aromatic cheeses, while cows fed little to no grass produce whiter, firmer cheeses with milder flavours.
In corn-based systems—a crop which is becoming increasingly popular in semi-mountainous areas—the quality of the cheese is severely compromised by the loss of grazed grass, which is likely to occur as a result of drought. Maintaining fresh grass in corn-based diets, even in small quantities, proved to be crucial in order to preserve the nutritional and sensory quality of the cheese. In grass-based systems, the traditional practice of supplementing cows with hay allows farmers to cope with an episode of drought, and the impact on cheese quality is not as severe.
Numerous other samples were also analysed, from the soil of the grassland to the faeces of rats that had eaten the cheese, as well as the surface of the grass and the cows' udders. These analyses will enable researchers to assess the microbial transfers that occur along the agri-food chain depending on the cows‘ diet, and to study how changes in common practices are likely to impact the microbiota of consumers. The results will be part of a forthcoming publication.
The Herbipôle facility has carried out this study as part of the TANDEM research project (of the Holoflux metaprogramme), led by the Joint Research Unit on Cheese. This project brought together a large number of participants: 11 research units involving INRAE researchers (Herbivores Joint Research Unit, Grassland Ecosystem Research Unit, Animal Genetics and Integrative Biology Research Unit, Cardiovascular, Metabolism, Diabetes and Nutrition Laboratory Joint Research Unit, Optimization of processes in Agriculture, Agri-food industry and Environment Research Unit, Agroecology Joint Research Unit, Microbiology, Digestive Environment and Health Joint Research Unit, Laboratory of Environmental Biotechnology Joint Research Unit, Territories Joint Research Unit, Innovation Joint Research Unit, Applied Mathematics and Informatics from Genome to the Environment Joint Research Unit), Fromages de terroirs RMT (joint technology network), Filières sous IG GIS (scientific interest group), Pôle Fromager AOP Massif Central, Chamber of Agriculture of the Puy-De-Dôme, Chamber of Agriculture of the Cantal, Institut de l'élevage, Interprofession du Saint-Nectaire, Comité interprofessionnel des fromages du Cantal, and dairy producers.