Research has found that if the drought deepens, significant ecosystem change could also occur between rainforest and savanna-like vegetation.
New research shows that the Amazon rainforest is reaching a tipping point that will have devastating consequences for the world's climate system.
According to scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, 47 percent of the 'planet's lungs' could be at risk by 2050 from rising temperatures, drought, deforestation and fires.
in the southeastern Amazon brazil has already been transferred from the carbon sink carbon source Which means it emits more greenhouse gases than it absorbs.
As PIK scientist Boris Sakschevsky explains, this proves that “the current amount of human pressure is too great for the area to maintain its status as rainforest in the long term.”
But the problem doesn't stop there, he says. “Because rainforests enrich the air with much of the moisture that forms the basis of rainfall in the west and south of the continent, losing forest in one place can lead to losing forest in another location in a self-propelled feedback loop or simply 'tipping' the air. ,
What happens if Amazon crosses tipping point?
The Earth has several natural limits that, if violated, could cause temperatures to spiral out of control and cause a devastating domino effect for ecosystems and people.
The Amazon dieback is one of these, along with the collapse of large ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica, the death of coral reefs in warming oceans, and the collapse of a significant reef. atlantic ocean current
Impact of forest loss doesn't stop at borders Ranchandi Explain the authors of the new study published today in the journal Nature.
Mirroring its mighty river, the Amazon's trees suck water and pump billions of tons of water vapor a day into giant 'flying rivers'. This sky moisture is a vital part of the South American monsoon – and is essential for rainfall across vast parts of the continent.
And since the Amazon still stores carbon equivalent to 15-20 years of current human CO2 emissions, releasing it through forest loss would significantly increase global warming.
What are the biggest threats to Amazon?
In their study, the international team of researchers identified five climate and land-use boundaries that must not be violated to keep the Amazon resilient.
These are: Global warming , annual rainfall amount, intensity of the rainy season, length of the dry season, and cumulative deforestation. For each of these drivers, scientists suggest safe limits to prevent the Amazon from exceeding its tipping point.
For example, a rainforest cannot exist if the average annual rainfall falls below 1,000 mm. But, explains Da Nian, another PIK scientist and co-author of the study, below 1,800 mm per year, “an abrupt transition from rainforest to savanna-like vegetation becomes possible.”
“It can be triggered by the person dry Or wildfires, which have become more frequent and more severe in recent years.
Given the current trajectory of global warming, and direct attacks on the forest from logging and fires, the study suggests that 10–47 percent of Amazonian forests will be at risk from increased disturbance, causing this precious ecosystem to reach its limits. Will go.
What will happen to the destroyed parts of the Amazon?
The study also analyzed examples of disturbed forests in different parts of the Amazon to understand what could happen to the ecosystem.
In some cases, forests may recover in the future, but will still be stuck in a degraded state, dominated by opportunistic plants such as lianas. bamboo
In other cases, the forest no longer recovers, and remains trapped in an open canopy, flammable state. The expansion of open, flammable ecosystems throughout the core of the Amazon forest is particularly worrisome because they can spread fires to adjacent forests.
Scientists call for end to deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions
Climate change issues like the loss of the Amazon are difficult to understand because of their complexity and vastness. But the call to action from the study authors is familiar and clear.
“To maintain the Amazon forest within safe limits, local and global efforts must be combined,” said co-author Niklas Boers, leader of the Future Lab 'Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene' at PIK and Earth System Modeling at the Technical University Professor says. Of Munich.
deforestation And forest degradation must be ended and restoration must be expanded. “Moreover, much more needs to be done to curb greenhouse-gas emissions worldwide.”