The Amazon Rainforest, the largest rainforest in the world, is at risk of collapse. Researchers warn that it is approaching its tipping point and could happen in three decades.
Amazon Rainforest at Risk of Collapse A new study learned that nearly half of the Amazon rainforest is at risk of collapse. Part of the reason is the "unprecedented stress" and a combination of climate change-related drivers like deforestation and global warming, to name a few.
After analyzing data for five causes of water stress in the area and crucial thresholds that run the risk of initiating the system's collapse, the researcher concluded that 10 percent of the Amazon was highly susceptible to becoming degraded ecosystems with less tree cover or grasslands. Additionally, another 47% of the forest, largely unexplored regions more susceptible to severe droughts like the current one, are at risk of collapsing by 2050.
They found that even in central and distant areas of the system, the region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to major droughts, fires, higher temperatures, and deforestation. They said that going beyond possible critical thresholds, also known as tipping points, might result in "local, regional, or even biome-wide forest collapse" and have a cascading influence on local climate change.
"Once we cross this tipping point, we will lose control of how the system will behave," said ecologist Bernardo Flores of the University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, lead author of the report. "The forest will die by itself."
This peer-reviewed work is the first significant study to examine the combined consequences of several threats. However, previous research has evaluated the separate effects of deforestation and climate change on the rainforest.
"This study adds it all up to show how this tipping point is closer than other studies estimated," added Carlos Nobre, an author of the study. Dr. Nobre is a Brazilian earth systems scientist who studies how deforestation and climate change might permanently change forests.
The study overlaid data on temperature, rainfall patterns, and forest cover to determine where the rainforest is most likely to transform. It then considered additional characteristics, such as roads or legal protections, that would make certain portions of the forest more or less unstable. Due to these changes, the forest may reach a tipping point, at which point the entire forest ecosystem may collapse.
The researchers noted that they couldn't tell for sure when the collapse would happen, but "we are approaching it faster than we thought."