Swathes of the Amazon face pressures that could lead to a tipping point by 2050, prompting large-scale collapse of the key forest systems, scientists have warned.
A study found that by the middle of the century, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be threatened by a combination of impacts including global warming, changing rainfall, longer dry seasons, deforestation and fires. The Amazon rainforest holds more than 10% of Earth's land-based wildlife, stores an amount of carbon equivalent to 15 to 20 years of global emissions from human activity, and has a cooling effect that helps stabilise the climate.
The resilience of the region's forests has been decreasing since the early 2000s. The research looked at causes of water stress in the Amazon, using natural records, climate models, and data such as satellite images. Rising temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and deforestation are some of the threats the Amazon is facing. As much as 38% of the remaining Amazon forest has been degraded by logging, fires, and drought. By 2050, 10% to 47% of the area will be exposed to threats that may trigger a shift from natural forest to savannah and degraded forests.
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