One study reports that 10-47% of Amazon River basin forests could be under climate stress and that the Amazon biome could pass a tipping point as early as 2050. Nature Published in As forests collapse, ecosystems are forced to adapt, potentially exacerbating local impacts of climate change.
The Amazon forest holds 10% of the planet’s biodiversity, stores carbon equivalent to 15-20 years of global carbon emissions, and is used to stabilize the Earth’s climate and has a useful net cooling effect. Ecosystems are constantly exposed to environmental stresses from a variety of sources (e.g., water stress), but can reach a tipping point where they succumb to the stress, resulting in unexpected, large-scale changes. This potential collapse of the Amazon forest system is a global concern.
Bernardo Flores and colleagues analyzed five causes of water stress in the Amazon rainforest: global warming, annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall intensity, dry season length and deforestation. To examine these variables, Flores and colleagues used about 65 million years of historical records, climate models, and observational data since the 1980s (such as satellite observation data on wildfire spread, tree cover, and deforestation).
The analysis by Flores et al. predicted that the Amazon forest could reach a tipping point for ecosystem collapse by 2050. Flores and colleagues also believe that between 10% and 47% of the Amazon forest is currently under stress, which could lead to widespread population transitions. ecosystems. Ecosystem transitions could threaten the Amazon’s role as a carbon sink and could exacerbate local impacts of climate change.
Flores and colleagues argue that these findings provide evidence of the need to strengthen the Amazon’s resilience through proactive efforts. This preventative effort could include different types of local and global efforts, such as ending deforestation, promoting reforestation, and moving away from greenhouse gases as an energy source.
doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0
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